Overview

• Iran declared full operational control over the Strait of Hormuz — from the Tunb Islands to the port of Jask — demanding toll payments, advance coordination, and national identification from all transiting vessels, reframing Hormuz as its primary strategic deterrence lever, explicitly replacing missiles, proxies, and nuclear deterrence in Iranian doctrine.

•  The New York Times reported on May 12 that anonymously leaked US intelligence reports stated that Iran has retained approximately 70% of its pre-war missile stockpile and mobile launchers, and has regained access to 30 of 33 Hormuz missile sites and approximately 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities — directly contradicting the Trump administration’s public claim that Iran’s military was “decimated.”

• The Lebanon Ceasefire was extended for another 45 days following the third round of Israel-Lebanon talks in Washington, despite escalating fighting throughout the week. Three IDF soldiers were killed by Hezbollah, bringing the total to seven fallen since the ceasefire began.

• In Gaza, the IDF and Shin Bet confirmed the elimination of Izz al-Din Haddad, commander of Hamas’s military wing, the last senior Hamas figure in Gaza not yet eliminated and one of the chief architects of the October 7 massacre.

• Iran-US negotiations remain deadlocked: Iran presented five…