This paper is the second in a special series titled “The Domino Effect of the Iranian Regime?” - an analytical effort to assess whether the recent developments signal the beginning of the regime’s collapse. 

Each paper in the series will examine emerging cracks in Iran’s political, military, and social structures following Israel’s unprecedented military operation. This initial assessment explores whether the current moment represents a tipping point in the Islamic Republic’s stability, or merely a temporary disruption.

Preface

Iran stands at a critical crossroads in its political history. After more than four decades under the rule of the Ayatollah’s regime - there are calls for a fundamental change to the existing order, both from abroad and within Iran. Sustained public anger, internal collapse of trust, entanglement in regional and global arenas, and open opposition by exiled dissidents together, create a rare combination of pressure that, under certain conditions, may culminate in regime upheaval. The question is no longer whether protests exist, but whether the ground is sufficiently fertile for the regime’s downfall - and what role the international community should play in denying the Ayatollahs a political lifeline.

As protests within Iran remained subdued over the course of the 12-day war due…