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The Muscat Maneuver: Iran’s Silent War Across the Negotiation Table

By:

Eran Lahav, Giovanni Giacalone, Avishai Karo

23 Apr 2025

Research Paper
About The Authors

Eran Lahav

Head of Iran Department

Giovanni Giacalone

Research MIddle East Desk

Avishai Karo

Research MIddle East Desk

This paper, U.S-Iran Talks in Oman: Negotiation Developments, explores the recent secret discussions between Tehran and Washington through the lens of three critical perspectives: the Iranian regime, the broader Arab world, and Iranian diplomatic perspective. While the White House and Omani mediators describe the Muscat talks as “constructive,” deeper analysis reveals a highly asymmetrical perception of the negotiations across different audiences and strategic interests.
The diverging narratives underscore the complexity of the nuclear Oman talks - not merely as a negotiation over the nuclear program itself uranium and sanctions, but as a multidimensional chessboard involving identity, power, and long-term regional influence.

Diplomacy or Deception? The Real Stakes of the U.S - Iran Dialogue


“Let’s not be overly optimistic”


In a sermon to members of government, the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei waved off the talks in Oman as “one of the dozens of tasks the Foreign Ministry is doing”, and that one should not be “overly optimistic nor overly pessimistic” about. “It may come to a conclusion, it may not. Let’s see,” he added. This neutral, poker-face tone had one caveat, though: Khamenei alerted that Iran has “red lines”, and that “the mistakes we made in the JCPOA [the 2015…

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