This paper is the first in a special series titled “The Domino Effect of the Iranian Regime?” - an analytical effort to assess whether the recent developments signal the beginning of the regime’s collapse. Each paper in the series will examine emerging cracks in Iran’s political, military, and social structures following Israel’s unprecedented military operation. This initial assessment explores whether the current moment represents a tipping point in the Islamic Republic’s stability, or merely a temporary disruption.

Preface

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented, large-scale military operation against Iran - “Am KeLavi” (‘Rising Lion’) - involving over 200 fighter jets and drones that penetrated deep into Iranian territory, in addition to covert Mossad activities. The operation targeted a wide range of strategic sites: nuclear facilities in Natanz, Tabriz, Arak, Fordow and Parchin, ballistic missile launchers and silos; assets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), state assets in the energy, media, and law enforcement sectors, and key command & control centers. 

The strikes resulted in highly significant but focused damage. Among those killed were Iran's three most senior security officials: the Chief of Staff, Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the IRGC; Hossein Salami and the commander of…