This paper is the first in a special series titled “The Domino Effect of the Iranian Regime?” - an analytical effort to assess whether the recent developments signal the beginning of the regime’s collapse. Each paper in the series will examine emerging cracks in Iran’s political, military, and social structures following Israel’s unprecedented military operation. This initial assessment explores whether the current moment represents a tipping point in the Islamic Republic’s stability, or merely a temporary disruption.

Preface

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched an unprecedented, large-scale military operation against Iran - “Am KeLavi” (‘Rising Lion’) - involving over 200 fighter jets and drones that penetrated deep into Iranian territory, in addition to covert Mossad activities. The operation targeted a wide range of strategic sites: nuclear facilities in Natanz, Tabriz, Arak, Fordow and Parchin, ballistic missile launchers and silos; assets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), state assets in the energy, media, and law enforcement sectors, and key command & control centers. 

The strikes resulted in highly significant but focused damage. Among those killed were Iran's three most senior security officials: the Chief of Staff, Mohammad Bagheri, the head of the IRGC; Hossein Salami and the commander of Iran’s Strategic Emergency Command, Gholam Ali Rashid - as well as at least a dozen nuclear scientists. The attack, enabled by sophisticated collaboration between Israeli Intelligence and the Air Force, alongside the Mossad, marks a breakthrough in Israel’s detection and precision strike capabilities.

Iran’s response: Strategic Distress Beneath the Surface

Iran’s public response to the Israeli Air Force’s strikes reveals not only a security vulnerability but, more significantly, a deep strategic crisis within the regime’s top leadership. Beneath a veneer of denial, disinformation, and partial media silence, a different reality emerges: escalating internal pressure, a sense of emergency among the security elite, and a growing erosion of confidence within the leadership of the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian response points out a series of actions that indicate panic:

1. Relocation of senior officers from headquarters to undisclosed safe houses, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reportedly hiding in a bunker in Lavizan, northern Tehran.

2. The sudden summoning of Revolutionary Guards commanders to emergency meetings. 

3. The disruption of regional communication lines.

4. The imposition of heavy censorship on local media coverage.

5. Aggressive propaganda on state media.

6. Attempts to show gains over Israel that were proved to be false.

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, issued a deliberately ambiguous message: “the strong hand of the Islamic Republic will not cease” - a general threat on one hand, but with no clear operational response on the other - symbolizing a strategic confusion and dangerous deliberation.

This behavior indicates that the Israeli operation was not merely perceived as a tactical act, but as a psychological-political blow that has destabilized Tehran’s sense of control. For the international community, these are signs of deep fractures in the regime’s strategic mindset - an opportunity to reassess containment policies toward Iran, reevaluate deterrence thresholds, and consider how best to apply coordinated international pressure at this sensitive juncture.

Signs of Strategic Stress

In the aftermath of Israel’s airstrike, the Iranian regime appears to be grappling with severe internal and external distress, marked by dissonant messaging, diplomatic flailing, and coordinated psychological operations. Despite signaling a willingness to discuss a ceasefire - reportedly offering “flexibility in nuclear negotiations” in exchange for an immediate halt to hostilities - Tehran simultaneously escalated its rhetoric. Iranian leaders vowed to continue until “the destruction of Israel” and announced the operational use of hypersonic missiles, claiming upcoming attacks would be far more devastating and capable of bypassing any defense system.

Parallel to its military posture, Iran is conducting a diplomatic offensive laced with disinformation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Israel of deliberately targeting civilians in Tehran and other cities, though no verified reports support this claim. He further blamed Israel and the United States for sabotaging nuclear talks, even though Iran had already rejected the latest deal and refused to dismantle its military nuclear infrastructure. Araghchi also tried, unsuccessfully, to galvanize international condemnation by framing Israel’s strike on nuclear sites as a grave breach of international law.

It appears that the Iranian regime, is not only troubled by its military consequences but also by its short- and long-term impact on the regime’s stability and survival.

An analysis of the messages conveyed by regime officials and leaders in Iran alongside the behavior of Iran's official media since the beginning of the military confrontation, reveals several indicators of the pressure the regime is under.

As expected, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has repeatedly emphasized since the outbreak of war that the Zionist regime made a grave mistake and will not escape severe punishment. Similar declarations have been made frequently by other senior officials, accompanied by threats that reflect the extent of shock and humiliation caused by the Israeli strike to the regime and its leadership.

However, perhaps more interesting are the indications found in the conduct of the official Iranian media, pointing to a systematic and consistent effort by the regime to project to its citizens that it is in full control and ostensibly managing the campaign with a firm hand, as follows:

• Air Defense Success: Iranian media has frequently reported major achievements by the air defense system in intercepting Israeli attacks, including updates on the downing of drones and aircraft, accompanied by footage purportedly showing drone debris and wreckage.

• Intelligence Successes and Cyberattacks: Iranian outlets boast of cyberattacks that allegedly allow access to sensitive enemy documents containing valuable information about military facilities, pilots, and the like.

• Mossad Activity Prevention: Iranian media appears to be obsessively countering widespread reports of Mossad infiltrations within Iran. Increasingly, reports are being published on the alleged capture of Mossad agents, arrests of Iranian citizens suspected of cooperating with Zionist Mossad cells operating on Iranian soil, police chases of vehicles allegedly transporting drones, and makeshift local labs for producing explosives and drones operated by the Mossad inside Iran.

• Broadcasting “Business as Usual”: During the war’s first day, Iranian media attempted to show that life in Tehran and across the country continued as normal, though this narrative disappeared as Israeli strikes intensified.

The emerging picture is one of a regime under strategic distress and psychological strain. Iran’s mixed signals - desperate for help while simultaneously escalating threats - are accompanied by a deliberate campaign of disinformation as psychological warfare. False claims of downed Israeli jets and fabricated civilian casualties reveal not just desperation but a calculated attempt to manipulate perception, both domestically and internationally. This pattern of spreading unverified or false narratives, while failing to deliver proportionate military responses, points to deep confusion, fragmentation, and a psychological break within the regime’s leadership. The dissonance between rhetoric and reality, between threats and capabilities, forms the foundation for a broader assessment: are we witnessing the first cracks in the Islamic Republic’s strategic posture - the beginning of an Iranian domino effect?

Use of Disinformation as Psychological Warfare

Tehran’s attempt to craft a narrative of victimhood and counter-aggression is also reflected in its information warfare. Following the June 13 strike, Supreme Leader Khamenei reportedly ordered the launch of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles at Israel. However, only about 100 were fired - a discrepancy that suggests severe logistical or strategic constraints.

Further, Iran claimed it had downed two Israeli fighter jets and captured their pilots. These dramatic claims were quickly denied by IDF Arabic spokesperson Lt. Col. Avichay Adraee, and no independent evidence has corroborated Iran’s narrative.

For instance, on June 15, the Fars News Agency published the following statement on its Telegram channel:

“IRGC’s rapid response to Zionist crimes with unprecedented missile operations:

The third phase of the IRGC’s missile and aerospace drone operations began this afternoon, earlier than planned, in response to the inhuman evils of the Zionist regime. This is while the second phase of Operation “Honest Promise 3” was accompanied by an unprecedented record in the number of missiles fired and accuracy of hits. The successful penetration of Iranian missiles into the seven layers of defense of the occupying regime has become the most important concern of the Israeli war cabinet. Reports indicate that the Zionist army is urgently transferring several SAMP-T systems from Ukraine to the occupied territories. “

In another message, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards issued a warning to Israeli residents to abandon areas near nuclear and oil facilities using the same image format as the one used by the IDF.

Fake News and AI-Generated Content 

The Iranian regime and its supporters, who dominate the country’s digital space, frequently disseminate fake news about alleged hits on strategic sites in Israel and publish inflated and unreliable casualty figures. For example, Iranian news agencies report that all the missiles launched at the "Zionist entity" hit their targets. They also claim that military bases from which attacks on Iranian territory were launched were struck. Furthermore, regime-controlled content channels often produce and distribute AI-edited visual materials to create a false impression of the scale and impact of the attacks in Israel. This, of course, may indicate the pressure the regime is under and its urgent need to present the public with fabricated achievements.

In addition to these media behavior patterns, the regime’s concern over civilian conduct is evident, reflecting a lack of public trust in the regime and its ability to provide necessary protection. In response to footage showing mass departures from Tehran and panic-buying, media updates sought to calm citizens’ fears, including announcements that all metro stations would remain open 24/7 to serve as shelters, and a government spokeswoman’s promise to compensate all citizens whose homes were damaged in the strikes.

Furthermore, the regime seems acutely aware of the fragility of the situation and intermittently announces that “enemies of the state” are attempting to spread chaos and anarchy urging citizens to remain vigilant and not to cooperate with such attempts.

Additionally, billionaire Elon Musk confirmed that his Starlink internet service is now active in Iran, providing a way to bypass the regime’s strict internet censorship. Despite high costs and limited availability, Starlink enables Iranians to access free information and communicate despite government blackouts. This technology could empower opposition groups by improving communication and coordination, potentially contributing to increased pressure on the regime and raising the chances of political change in Iran.

The question of the fall of the Iranian regime: Exiled Iranians dissidents Perspective

Exiled Iranian dissidents living in Europe view these developments as confirmation of a regime losing its grip. Below are the opinions of two anonymous sources:

SOURCE 1: Iranian Baha'i community

 "Pahlevi just talks - Iranians demand action"

“The only way to bring down Khamenei is by having members of the regime defect and take him down. It is also important to strike the theocratic apparatus, the clergy, their hierarchy and, most important of all, the IRGC.

There is a need for an alliance between the population and democratic political actors who want to change the situation. Local political actors must be involved because they know the situation better than anyone else who is abroad. Pahlevi (Reza Pahlavi, the son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran) has always been a divisive person. What is he doing beyond making statements these days? The Iranians want to see personalities that are fully involved. Not someone parachuted from overseas.

As to the regime's propaganda and misinformation, the real question is: who is it addressed towards? Obviously, abroad most people know that it’s misinformation, except for those who are on the regime’s side and want to believe it. Inside Iran, the people very well know the regime and its propaganda machine. They know that the regime lies. The regime is simply trying to show that it remains strong and it’s hitting hard against Israel. If the people see that the regime is being defeated, they could start revolting, and that’s what the regime fears.”

SOURCE 2: National Council of Resistance 

“The regime can only be thrown from within”

“The regime cannot be overthrown with an external war, it must and can only be overthrown on the ground, from within. Now the regime is suffering heavy blows and is certainly weakened militarily, but the game for regime change must necessarily be on the ground.

Now we need to see the internal reaction. There is a widespread network of resistance, but we need to see the response of the population. There were slogans in various cities and not only, but obviously it must be something of a certain weight.”

Signs of cracks on the ground

The Iranian regime is showing signs of acute psychological and strategic distress. Its tactics and mixed signals reflect growing fear of collapse and loss of control.

In this context, several scenarios might emerge following the recent events:

Potential Strategic Scenarios

As of the third day of the conflict, it remains premature to definitively assess whether the Islamic Republic of Iran is on a trajectory toward collapse. The regime’s future hinges on a dynamic interplay between developments on the ground and the posture adopted by the international community - particularly the United States and key European actors. Increased Western engagement, whether direct or indirect, could catalyze internal disintegration by weakening the regime’s grip on its strategic assets, including its nuclear infrastructure.

Should Israel succeed in inflicting further high-impact strikes - targeting nuclear facilities, degrading ballistic capabilities, or eroding regime command structures - the consequences would extend far beyond immediate tactical success. Such outcomes would likely enhance Israel’s regional dominance and serve as a lasting psychological and deterrent victory. More significantly, a visible weakening of the regime could embolden not only long-standing dissident elements but also disaffected factions within Iran’s conventional military establishment, who are reportedly demoralized due to poor pay, marginalization by the IRGC, and the erosion of institutional legitimacy.

Once the perception of regime invulnerability is shattered, conditions may emerge for a qualitatively different kind of internal resistance. This could evolve from sporadic civil protests or covert intelligence cooperation into more organized, potentially armed networks. These would likely require not only indigenous motivation but also coordinated external support and sustained logistical frameworks to be effective.

Recent public reactions provide early indicators of a shifting internal landscape. In an interview with Israeli Kan 11channel, an Iranian citizen noted: “If you ask anyone in the city, everyone is happy. We hope this will bring an end to the crimes. This is such a rich country, and they made us poor. We can’t travel anywhere; everyone thinks we are terrorists, but we’re hostages.”

Conclusion 

This initial paper in the “Domino Effect of the Iranian Regime?” series has revealed that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not merely absorbing the consequences of Israel’s Rising Lion Operation but is grappling with deep and multidimensional distress that touches its military, psychological, and political foundations. While the regime projects defiance through aggressive rhetoric, staged media narratives, and disinformation campaigns, the evidence paints a picture of strategic paralysis, internal fragmentation, and growing fear of regime destabilization.

Signs of panic - such as emergency relocations, media censorship, contradictory military messaging, inflated propaganda, and the public’s eroding trust - highlight a regime that has sustained not only a tactical military blow, but a symbolic and psychological wound that could have long-lasting consequences. The regime’s disinformation blitz and use of AI-generated content further underscore its desperation to control perception in the face of an unpredictable reality.

More crucially, the behavior of Iran’s leadership suggests that they interpret the Israeli strike not as an isolated event, but as a potential catalyst for regime collapse. The stress signals coming from Tehran are not only being observed by Israel or the West - but they are also being closely followed by Iranian dissidents abroad, regional adversaries, and global actors who recognize that this moment might represent a tipping point.

What’s Next in the Series?

In the next paper, we will dive deeper into the internal sociopolitical fractures between ethnic groups within Iran that may intensify following this shockwave.

As the regime attempts to recalibrate, the question becomes not just whether the Islamic Republic can survive this blow, but whether it can withstand the cascading effects it may have already set in motion.

Is this the beginning of the end, or the start of a dangerous new chapter?

Stay tuned for Part II of “The Domino Effect of the Iranian Regime?” - where we trace the internal erosion and the ripple effects of vulnerability in one of the Middle East’s most entrenched regimes.