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The Sultan’s Gambit: How Erdogan is Forging a Neo-Ottoman Sunni Axis

By:

Eran Lahav, Giovanni Giacalone, Moran Alaluf

9 Feb 2026

Research Paper
About The Authors

Eran Lahav

Head of Iran Department

Giovanni Giacalone

Research MIddle East Desk

Moran Alaluf

Research MIddle East Desk


Preface

In the shifting sands of Middle Eastern power politics, no actor has mastered strategic ambiguity quite like Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Once a pillar of NATO and a model of secular governance, Ankara has gradually recast itself as the vanguard of a resurgent Sunni order - an aspiring hegemon driven by neo-Ottoman ambitions and Islamist solidarity. At the heart of this transformation lies Erdogan’s determination to reshape Turkey’s regional identity, fusing religion, nationalism, and realpolitik into a new doctrine of influence.


This paper examines how Turkey has positioned itself as both the political center and ideological patron of a Sunni axis stretching from Doha to Gaza. Through its deepening alliance with Qatar and its overt protection of Hamas, Ankara has become the principal sponsor and enabler of movements once confined to the fringes of Middle Eastern politics. Turkey’s political and intelligence infrastructure now serves as a platform for Hamas’s global activity - facilitating recruitment, financing, and propaganda under the guise of diplomatic engagement.


Yet the picture is far more complex than a simple Sunni revival. Even as Turkey cultivates Sunni unity, it has maintained pragmatic ties with Shiite Iran, coordinating on select strategic fronts despite their rivalry…

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