A Strategic Brief

Executive Remarks

• The deal represents an implementation framework rather than a final status solution. Success will be measured by demilitarization metrics, border control, and a governance handoff that excludes Hamas.

• U.S. involvement is limited to coordination outside Gaza. Israel welcomes this support as long as it reinforces deconfliction and protects Israeli operational security.

• Humanitarian facilitation must be real yet conditional. Aid levels should rise as compliance rises and must be protected from diversion by the right distribution mechanism.

• Hamas cannot be the partner in Gaza’s next chapter. Its own believes and current behavior argue against that assumption.

The war’s trajectory in Gaza, October 2023 to October 2025

The conflict entered its third year this month. It began with Hamas’s coordinated assault on October 7, 2023 when this murderous terror organization, butchered mercilessly roughly 1,200 people inside Israel – including American, French, and British citizens – and abducted 251 hostages from a dozen nationalities including holocaust survivors’ elderly, children and infants into Gaza. Israel’s response was an extensive air and ground campaign intended to dismantle Hamas’s armed forced and governance infrastructure and recover hostages. As of October 2025, Israeli authorities report 916 IDF soldiers killed and over 12,000 wounded…