Preface

The dramatic changes unfolding in Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024 have thrown the nation and the wider Middle East into dire uncertainty. As various minority communities such as the Druze, Alawites, and Kurds endure escalating violence under the new rule of Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Jolani), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, the lines between local conflict and regional instability have blurred. This paper offers a detailed account of recent atrocities and the existential threats now facing Syria's minorities. It seeks to contextualize these events within the broader rise of radical Islamist ideologies emanating from Syria, examining their sectarian motivations, regional implications, and the growing spillover risks for Israel and neighboring states. By scrutinizing the interplay between ideology, strategic alliances, and territorial ambitions, this analysis warns of a potential shift toward a transnational Islamic threat whose repercussions may extend well beyond Syria’s borders.

Executive Summary

• Rise of Radical Islamic Regime: The fall of the Assad regime in late 2024 and the ascent of al-Jolani - a figure deeply rooted in al-Qaeda’s Salafi-jihadist ideology - have transformed Syria, amplified sectarian conflict and placed its minorities in extreme danger.

• Persecution of the Druze Minority: Recent months witnessed mass atrocities against the…