On November 27, 2024, the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, and within mere days, the long-awaited rebellion in Syria exploded into action. In just 11 days, Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to overthrow Bashar Assad’s regime.

By the time the dust settled, Syria was under the control of a coalition of rebels, Damascus was in their hands, and Assad had fled to Russia. The speed and intensity of the collapse of Syria has shocked the world, but for Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, a member of the “Securityists” movement and a prominent expert on the Middle East, it was not unexpected.

Dr. Kedar, whose writings on the legitimacy of the Assad regime date back decades, argues that the collapse of Syria was foreseeable. “Syria is a hollow country,” Kedar states, as “the people never believed in the regime, and the army was unwilling to die for it.”

His 2005 book Asad in Search of Legitimacy chronicles the Baathist regime's fruitless efforts to establish itself as a legitimate governing force in Syria. In his view, the Assad family never earned the legitimacy of their people, ruling instead through force and repression.

This lack of legitimacy, Dr. Kedar explains, can be…