Statements by senior Iranian officials, intelligence reports, and activity on the ground prove unequivocally: Iran is determined to acquire nuclear weapons and has no intention of honoring international agreements. The West is now faced with the critical decision between determined military action and acceptance of a nuclear Iran – a scenario that will reshape the regional and global map.

In the past several days, the US has come to the latest round of talks with Iran determined to advance a diplomatic solution, putting on the table a host of proposals – starting from allowing Iran to continue holding only a limited stockpile of civilian-grade enriched uranium, to a gradual removal of sanctions, and ending with an agreement for a civilian military program under international supervision, or any third-party entity. However, Iran obstinately rejected these out of hand. 

On June 4, 2025, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the “Uranium enrichment is the key to our nuclear program”, adding that Iran will not ditch its uranium enrichment. 

The agreement illusion shatters: Iran reveals its true intentions 

Khamenei’s refusal did not come as a surprise, as it precisely reflected the message conveyed just days before by Professor Fereydoon Abbasi, former head of Iran’s nuclear energy organization, stating that “we have all the knowledge and capabilities needed to build a nuclear bomb”, and once the starting signal is given – breakout to a nuclear weapon could take anywhere from “two hours to several months”. These comments paint a grim but clear picture: Iran had not truly sought an agreement. Rather it used negotiations on one to buy time to allow it to advance on the road to military nuclear capabilities. The offer placed on the table by the West – even the most generous terms – could not stand up to the long-term strategy of a regime that never truly had any intention of abandoning its nuclear vision.  Professor Abbasi’s statements, voiced only days before Khamenei’s rejection of the proposed agreement illustrate how unrealistic the diplomatic negotiations were. 

On May 28. 2025, Professor Abassi said: “If I receive the order to build a nuclear bomb – I shall do so. We can build a small nuclear bomb that can destroy a whole military base, and is not classified as a WMD; the Zionists have a chance to leave now, whoever stays should be eliminated”.

Abbasi, who held the position in 2011-2013, and who – according to foreign sources – survived and Israeli assassination attempt – claimed that “We have all the knowledge and capability to develop a nuclear bomb. We just need to make the decision. So far, we haven’t been instructed to build a bomb. It could take two hours or it could take several months — once we start, we’ll know."”.  

Another of Abassi’s statements, from February 2025, illustrates Iran’s deceitful diplomacy. According to Abbasi, Iran can obtain effective deterrence against the US and Israel, if its uranium enrichment effort would allow the production of nuclear weapons that would be stored in a safe location, resistant to bombing by enemy forces. 

All these statements by Abbasi are clear and cut proof of Iran’s intentions, and even worse – practical capabilities. They were voiced a mere three days after the fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran – which attests to Iran’s perceived immunity and defiance of the West. All the above presents the Trump administration with the imperative of making a historic decision: either to advance to a new agreement or to acknowledge the reality wherein Iran is closer than ever to a nuclear weapon. 

Intelligence exposes: the reality behind Iran’s statements

Abbasi’s message was dramatically reinforced on May 31, 2025, with the publication of the IAEA confidential report, which revealed that Iran had been continuing its uranium enrichment activity to a level of 60% and within just three months, has grown its stockpile of said uranium by 50% to 408.6 kg. According to estimates, this is sufficient for ten nuclear warheads, at a production rate of one warhead per month. The report also reveals nuclear activity in covert sites (Marivan, Varmin and Turkuzabad), as well as the destruction of evidence and violation its commitments. 

The IAEA’s reports come only three days after an Austrian intelligence 211-page report, which claims that contrary to America’s latest estimates according to which Iran is not actively producing a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei had not approved the renewal of the program, which he suspended in 2003 – Iran’s nuclear development program is in fact rather advanced, it the regime is sitting on a growing stockpile of ballistic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads to long-ranges.

Moreover, Iran’s nuclear facilities are widely scattered across the country, and some, like Natanz and Fordow, are fortified deep underground. According to reports, Iran had revealed to the IAEA 21 nuclear facilities, but in all probability, it has additional sites that it had not disclosed to the Agency. Recent satellite images revealed by Fox News show a covert site in which Iran is producing tritium – a radioactive isotope that is used to increase the power of nuclear weapons. Tritium has no civilian or commercial uses – another chink in Iran’s claims that its nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful purposes. 

A history of deceit: Iran has been violating agreements for years

History and the facts on the ground show us that Iran – with or without agreements – is hurtling towards a nuclear weapon and its designs to annihilate the State of Israel, in violation of its agreements and commitments. Despite sanctions imposed by the US, Iran’s nuclear program and arms group (קבוצת הנשק) have continued growing at breakneck speed. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – the IRGC – were able to fund, train and arm their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and its militias in Syria and Iraq), which are operating against Israel and the West, for which they receive billions of dollars. Evidence of this is the statement of Israeli Defense Minister, Yisrael Katz, who on April 2025, presented unequivocal evidence of Iran’s support of Hamas’ designs to destroy Israel and the October 7 massacre.  Katz stated that “[Mohammed] Deif and Sinwar demanded of the commander of the IRGC Quds force 500 million dollars for the destruction of the State of Israel and the war against the US, which it had received”. Furthermore, over the years, the IAEA published numerous intelligence reports that have shown blatant violations on part of Iran, hence, there are no guarantees it would not continue doing so with any further agreements. The following case studies are evidence and examples of how Iran continually violated its obligations. 

One case study is the nuclear site in Natanz. In 2022, an IAEA report exposed Iran had amassed ten times more enriched uranium that was set in the agreement. It had also exceeded the cap of 3.67% enrichment and had over 2,100 kg of enriched uranium as opposed to the 202.8 set in the agreement. For four months, Iran denied IAEA inspectors access to both nuclear facilities the report discusses.  

Another case study is the Fordow nuclear facility. In 2023, an IAEA report revealed that Iran had begun enriching uranium to a 60% level – a step away from military-grade uranium. This contrary to its commitment and without notifying an international body. European states condemned Iran and announced that “this change is not in line with Iran’s obligations as per the international agreements”, but aside from diplomacy, refrained from taking any effective military measures. 

The above case studies, coupled with statements by senior Iranian officials and findings of the IAEA and Austrian intelligence reports leave very little room for doubt: Iran is not complying with the agreement, nor has it any intention of doing so. And if its public statements were not enough – the intelligence on its activity lead to a single conclusion: agreements are no longer effective. Only a determined physical move to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure can prevent the point of no return. 

Khamenei’s ideology of hate: the annihilation of Israel as the first step in the war on the West

The most compelling evidence to Iran’s designs, part of which it had already realized, can be found in the book by the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, titled “Palestine”. The book, written in 2015 during the nuclear talks between Iran and the Obama administration – another telltale sign of Iran’s duplicity – tells that Khamenei’s goal is the “annihilation of the State of Israel”, claiming that “Israel has no right to exist as a state”. Moreover, he writes that he is planning the rise of an Iranian hegemony in the Middle East, replacing the western hegemony, in which Iran will be the force to dictate the political, military and religious rules of the game in the region, and act to eliminate western presence and influence, strengthen its proxies, and force a change in the balance of powers in the area. The path to this, according to Khamenei, is the “attrition of Israel” (thorough Iran’s proxies). Furthermore, Khamenei waxes poetic on his deep-seated hatred toward Israel, for its loyalty to the “great American Satan”, adding that they are “infidels”.

In fact, Israel is perceived by Khamenei as a mere stepping stone on the path of his larger war against the entire western world, that begins in the Middle East.  The proof that Iran’s stance is in fact one of Jihad, is the lengths that Khamenei takes to clarify that this is not antisemitism, but “well-based principles of Islam”, i.e. life in the way of Islam. 

In such a situation, the US must understand that it has the moral and security obligation – not only towards its close ally – but to the free world as a whole. A partial nuclear deal or any foot-dragging policy might allow for the worst-case scenario: a nuclear weapon in the hands of a radical revolutionary body, whose world view is based predominantly on a religious Jihad and anti-western sentiments. The loss of deterrence toward Iran will not be limited to a regional failure – but a failure of historical proportions with devastating consequences for future generations.  

Any agreement is doomed to fail to prevent a nuclear Iran

A series of statements by Iranian officials, presented in Appendix A below, prove beyond doubt that Iran has no intention of ditching its nuclear program, and plans to continue to develop its nuclear capabilities, regardless of the sanctions or pressure against it. Moreover, it is overtly threatening the IAEA and international community. Its bold statements on its intentions to proceed with its nuclear development program teaches that any future nuclear agreement with Iran is bound to hit significant potholes.  These statements are testimony to the strategic significance Tehran attributes to its nuclear program. 

In fact, Iran’s long-standing strategy is based on concealment, deceit and misleading the West – all in a bid for time, shirking any real cost. Israel understands the challenge all too well and is acting accordingly. But as of now – time is of the essence. While the US opts for careful optimism in its endeavor to sign a nuclear agreement and is exhaustively exploring the diplomatic options to which it is committed under its risk management doctrine/policy, the American President stated a number of times that a real military option is on the table and that Iran shall not have a nuclear weapon. On March 2025 Trump threatened Iran with “bombings the likes they have never seen before”. A month later he said “They [Iran] cannot have a nuclear weapon. If they have a nuclear weapon, they won’t get a chance – not even close. if we have to do something very harsh, we’ll do it. I’m not doing it for us. I’m doing it for the world. These are radicalized people, and they cannot have a nuclear weapon”. He further said that they have to move quickly or “something bad is going to happen”, thus putting a time cap on Iran. President Trump’s statements are not just for purposes of deterrence or intimidation – it is backed with facts on the ground. On the backdrop of negotiations, an airlift of arms was sent by the US to Israel, including heavy MK-84 concrete penetrating bombs, interceptors for the THADD defense battery, and other munitions that were frozen during the Biden administration, immediately released to Israel once Trump came into office. 

The double message that Tehran is conveying to the international community thus far has not been able to mislead the Trump administration. On one hand Iran claimed in 2024, for example, that “the nuclear program is for civilian purposes”, while at the same time, threatening that “Tehran might change its nuclear policy if Israel continues to issue threats”, and “If the enemy makes even the slightest attack on our [nuclear] facilities, we will deliver a crushing response”. This is testimony to just how important the nuclear program is to the Iranian regime. However, a civilian nuclear program aims ultimately to produce electricity, as oppose to military nuclear uses, which require uranium and much higher levels of uranium enrichment, or plutonium (Plutogenic Program) – both of which are used in the core of a nuclear bomb – exactly what Iran is producing, according to the IAEA reports. Therefore, in May this year, Trump cast doubt on Iran’s proclaimed intentions when noting that Iran has “a lot of oil”, questioning “when you have unlimited amounts of oil and gas, why do you need civil nuclear? I think nuclear is fine for civil, if you have a country with no oil”. 

Thus, VP J. D. Vance’s statement that “Iran can have civilian nuclear power” fails to reflect the facts on the ground. Iran’s “space program” is testimony to this, serving as a power multiplier for its nuclear project. For years Iran claimed its space program too was for civilian purposes alone. However, satellite images already from 2013 reveal a covert space program under the guidance of the IRGC in the north of Iran’s largest desert, some 40 kilometers east of the town of Shahrud. Hassan Moghadam, who led the project and was killed in a mysterious explosion in 2011, was developing a large two-meter wide, two-phase solid-fuel satellite launcher dubbed “Ka’am”. In 2014, General Majid Mousavi, deputy commander of the IRGC air and space force, said that the purpose of the space program is “mainly to advance missile technologies under the guise of a civilian space program, especially to circumvent the self-imposed 2,000 km limitation on range”, which Iran committed to in 2015 under Obama’s JCPOA nuclear agreement. This statement reveals Iran’s true intentions, with regards to its “malicious capabilities under the radar” – under a false appearance of civilian activity. 

Facing the potential failure of the negotiations, and with the understanding that Iran is a bitter and calculated enemy, Israel is readying itself for this contingency. At the end of May this year, the IDF conducted a broad joint forces exercise dubbed “High Lightning” (Barak Tamir) that simulated a multi-arena confrontation aiming to respond to emergency contingencies. It also held a discussion on the possibility of a strike on Iran, with severe retaliation likely on part of the regime. Several days later, the 800^th military transport aircraft landed in Israel as part of the military airlift from the US since the beginning of the war – demonstrating the widespread preparations Israel is conducting. 

With or without an agreement – Iran will continue its race to a nuclear weapon

Iran is known for its secretive mode of operation, including the concealment of nuclear facilities and equipment prohibited by international law. It is highly likely that despite the current negotiations round, which has been underway for two months already, it is already hiding military grade enriched uranium. Moreover, the nuclear agreement leans on inconsistent policy of changing administrations in the US, which impedes its effectiveness over time. All the American administrations over the past twenty years – Biden, Trump and their predecessors – publicly announced that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon. What sets these administrations apart in this regard is the determination in which they addressed the issue, their approach and their expectations of the final outcome. It follows that a nuclear agreement cannot suffice to serve as a preventative and restraining measure. What is required is a permanent mechanism that is independent of political changes to prevent Iran’s ongoing force buildup.  

All the measures taken thus far – economic sanctions, diplomatic efforts, international agreements and even covert military operations failed to stem Iran’s progress on the pathway to a nuclear weapon. Once all other venues have been exhausted and in the event that alternative options were tried and tested, one option that has not been truly attempted must be considered: the use of military force.  This is not an easy or risk-free choice, but it just might be the last ditch to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state, and fundamentally change the regional geopolitical map. Any agreement that would allow Iran to continue developing military nuclear capabilities under cover, might prove to be a grave and irreversible threat on Israeli security and the stability of the entire region.   

The Moment of Decision

Iran continues to try and mislead the West. On one hand, it is sitting at the negotiation table with the Trump administration, under the pretense of good will – which did not happen with the Obama administration, attesting to the current administration’s deterrence – however, Iran is digging in its heels and rejecting every offer from Washington, including the continuation of enrichment with a cap on levels, the transfer of Iran’s enrichment facilities out of the country, or an interim agreement of a one-year pause in its enrichment activity.    

It is important to note that even in the event that Iran does sign an agreement, it would not be enough to neutralize the core threat. Even if reached – technical understandings would still leave the centrifuges, the knowledge and the facilities in place, ready to spring into action on H-Hour.

איראן ידועה בהתנהלותה החשאית ובהסתרת מתקנים וציוד האסור על פי הדין הבינלאומי, ויתכן שבחסות סבב השיחות שנמשך כבר כמעט חודשיים, היא מסתירה כבר עכשיו אורניום מועשר. בנוסף, הסכם הנשען על מדיניות לא עקבית של ממשלים אמריקאיים מתחלפים, דבר שפוגע באפקטיביות שלו לאורך זמן. כל הממשלים בארה"ב – ביידן, טראמפ, וקודמיהם בעשרים השנים האחרונות – הצהירו כי לאיראן אסור להשיג נשק גרעיני. ההבדל ביניהם טמון בתקיפות, בגישה ובציפיות מהתוצאה הסופית. לפיכך, אין די בהסכם לבדו כגורם מונע ומרסן. נדרש מנגנון קבוע ובלתי תלוי בשינויים פוליטיים בכדי למנוע את המשך ההתחמשות של איראן.

The main concern is that Iran will continue clandestinely amassing enriched uranium, and would still maintain the ability to restart its military nuclear program under cover, and conduct a nuclear trial in the secluded depths of its vast deserts, becoming a nuclear state before the world takes notice or responds. Although Iran is presenting the pretense of a normative state on the international stage, it is more likened to a global terror organization that has been investing decades in the development of a world-wide logistic network, with dormant and non-dormant cells in Europe, South America, Africa and the US, waiting for the H-hour. Iran has also been conducting massive financial activities including money laundering, collaboration with crime syndicates and enemies of the US and the West. Therefore, in such an event, diplomacy and an agreement that includes solely supervision and enrichment caps, both geographically and quantitatively, but not the destruction of Iran’s effective infrastructure for a nuclear breakout – poses a grave threat to the security of the State of Israel as well as to the West. Moreover, Iran's strengthening will deepen the cooperation in the axis of evil with Russia, China, and North Korea, and will expose the entire West to a host of strategic dangers.

Iran would not be satisfied with only enrichment for “civilian purposes”, even if on the face of it – it agrees to comply with such a demand, and it will simply operate under the radar, as it has been doing for years. Iran is currently on the verge of military nuclear capability, and the time left for a breakout to a nuclear weapon is now significantly shorter than in the past. Therefore, gambling with global security cannot be an option by trusting a player that proves time and again that its rules of the game are deception rather than reconciliation. It is necessary to ensure a complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and not just supervise its intentions.

In order to make headway with negotiations, Iran demands the right to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil and access to billions of dollars frozen in Qatar. This demand is indicative of Tehran’s repeated dynamics: outwardly it demonstrates flexibility but at the same time, preserves its nuclear infrastructure allowing it future breakout to a bomb. Indecision now would lead to a reality in which it would be impossible to prevent Iran from becoming a military nuclear power. The free world must make it clear that it no longer intends to look the other way, and make do a with the appearance of peace at any cost. 

The risk of a conventional conflict is high, but ten-fold lower than the existential danger inherent in a nuclear Iran – a scenario that must be stopped at all costs. Israel knows how to deal with missile threats, has demonstrated near-perfect interception capabilities, and has a strong regional and international partnership – first and foremost with the United States. It is also necessary to prepare for the possibility of diplomatic failure, and to develop appropriate offensive and defensive response capabilities, and to ensure the full readiness of the home front, including the national emergency system.

Appendix A – quotes

On November 29, 2024, Iranian officials threatened on Al-Mayadeen TV that if the IAEA passed a resolution against Iran, it would be necessary to open an investigation and produce a special report by the IAEA director-general on the Iranian nuclear program – “Iran will implement immediate technical measures in response”. On April 11, 2025, an adviser to the Iranian president, Ali Shamkhani, who also serves as a supervisor of the nuclear deal negotiations, threatened with the “expulsion of IAEA inspectors and ceasing cooperation with it” ,and “Transferring enriched material to safe and undisclosed locations in Iran”.

On February 2025, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, also said: “If you (the enemy) strike a hundred of those we will build a thousand other ones... You can hit the buildings and the places but you cannot hit those who build it”.

On May 26, 2025, Pezeshkian said that his country would survive “even without negotiations with the U.S. and if more sanctions are imposed”. He added “We won't starve to death if they refuse to discuss with us or impose sanctions. We will find a way to survive”. These statements are evidence that it is not enough to deal only with the Iranian nuclear project, but also with the root of the problem – the Revolutionary Guards. In addition, the staunch position that Iran has presented numerous times demonstrates that this is an uncompromising extremist ideology, even when generous offers are put on the table. 

On May 28, 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened to retaliate after the British ambassador to the United States, Peter Mendelsohn, expressed support for the US position that Iran should cease uranium enrichment: “if their position is zero enrichment, we will no longer have any talks with them about nuclear issues. They must determine their own position, and we are not joking with anyone on the issue of enrichment."

On May 30, 2025, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed the Iranian foreign minister's sentiment, stating that: “We will never accept the elimination of our nuclear research." He then described the enrichment as intended for civilian purposes, but IAEA reports cited in the article above unequivocally contradict his claims. 

On May 29, 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that media reports on an impending agreement did not reflect reality. According to Araghchi, Iran insists on its demands for the lifting of all sanctions and on preserving its "nuclear rights," including its "enrichment capability”. This is further evidence of Iran's future plans. An early hint of Khamenei's later refusal to accept the agreement. Further reinforcement of this came on June 3, 2025, when a senior Iranian diplomatic source said that Tehran was about to reject the American proposed agreement.