1. The Past Year: Russia’s Strategic Position at the Start of 2026

As 2026 begins, the Russia-Ukraine war has surpassed the duration of the so-called “Great Patriotic War,” evolving from a localized conflict into a catalyst for broader change in the international order. In 2025, Russia modestly increased its rate of advance through a revised operational template combining battlefield air interdiction, strikes on supply lines, infiltration tactics, and small-unit assaults, supported by expanded use of fiber-optic drones and other technological adaptations. Despite this, advances remained slow and costly, and Russia failed to achieve key objectives such as conquering Donetsk Oblast or establishing buffer zones in northern Ukraine. Moscow nevertheless intensified strategic strikes against Ukraine’s energy and rail infrastructure. Ukraine struck targets deep inside Russia but was unable to halt Russian momentum, while 2025 became the deadliest year of the war for Ukrainian civilians.

2. Russian Strategic Direction: Interests and Constraints

Russia’s relative momentum in 2025 was aided by Israel’s prolonged war in the Middle East, which diverted international attention, and by U.S. efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, incentivizing Moscow to consolidate gains ahead of possible negotiations. Washington’s mediation produced mixed results. On one hand, Russia experienced renewed engagement with the United…