The Israel-Jordan peace agreement has long been considered a cornerstone of regional stability. But beneath that surface, cracks are deepening. Jordan is under mounting internal pressure, its public posture toward Israel is hardening, and the regional balance is shifting. For Israel, assuming that today’s quiet will last into tomorrow is becoming an ever-increasing strategic risk, writes Assaf Yishai.

A Kingdom Under Strain

Jordan was never a natural state. It was built on colonial design, ruled by a dynasty with roots in the Hijaz, and sustained by foreign aid and somewhat fragile legitimacy. Today, that legitimacy is fraying. King Abdullah II faces a restive population burdened by economic stagnation, water scarcity, and disillusionment. Islamist factions are gaining ground. Tribal support is waning. The monarchy survives by walking a narrow line—projecting pro-Western stability abroad while absorbing rising hostility at home. Maintaining that equilibrium is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

Anti-Israel Rhetoric, Ongoing Coordination

Since the October 7 massacre, Jordan’s tone has sharpened. The king withdrew his ambassador. Queen Rania voiced strong criticism of Israel in international interviews. Protests in Amman have turned openly hostile. Yet, away from the microphones, security ties remain intact. In both April and October 2024, Jordan helped intercept Iranian missiles targeting Israel. Intelligence…