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The Gaza Endgame: Trump and Netanyahu Redraw the Middle East


By:

Amir Avivi

Oct 12, 2025

Article
About The Authors

Amir Avivi

Distinguished Fellow

Some meetings are convened to avert a disaster, others to divide the spoils. The recently-announced agreement in Gaza, backed by regional countries, and the recent White House meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Donald Trump, were clearly the latter.

Only days prior, analysts asked: How to escape the morass? Would Trump lambast Netanyahu over the delays? Were there harsh dictates coming from Washington? Would the Israeli delegation arrive only to perform yet another round of diplomatic firefighting? The entire discussion centered on one anxiety: navigating the quagmire.


Yet when the Oval Office doors opened, it became clear the "quagmire" was no longer there. It had been left behind on the sands of Gaza. The men seated around the table were not firefighters rushing to extinguish a blaze, they were architects sketching a new map. This was no ordinary working session, it was a small, elegant Yalta Conference for the 21st century.


In February 1945, Stalin, Roosevelt, and Churchill met at a Black Sea resort not to discuss winning the war, the victory was already assured, but to partition Europe and structure the post-war world.


Similarly, the leaders in Washington did not meet to discuss defeating Hamas, the military victory is already clear. The summit forged the roadmap for the day after: who will govern Gaza, what the new Middle East will look like, and where American-Israeli influence will be drawn. Like Yalta, this was about dividing the world after victory.


The reality on the ground speaks for itself. Prior to the deal, the IDF controlled approximately 80% of Gaza. Israel has begun establishing an alternative governance framework based on local clans and militias managing affairs in Rafah, Khan Yunis and Beit Lahiya. As understanding grows that Hamas is a defunct force, residents' willingness to cooperate with Israel increases.


The agreed-upon deal encompasses Israel's five core tenets: immediate return of all hostages, eliminating Hamas as a political and military entity, full demilitarization and decommissioning of all weapons, full Israeli security responsibility and ensuring terror infrastructure can never again operate from Gaza.


This demand for demilitarization preserves Israel's freedom of action. If Gaza is demilitarized, the IDF withdraws. If not, Israel retains the right to continue enforcement. Either way, this constitutes victory.


The true story, however, transcends Gaza. It is about the new global order. The dynamics in Washington, including the Prime Minister's address at the UN and the talks with the Qatari Prime Minister, signal the formation of a powerful Western-Israeli-Sunni coalition. This is not merely a peace pact, it is a strategic alliance that stretches all the way to Indonesia in the Pacific Ocean. Its focus is on a global paradigm shift, forging a military and economic front against the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea axis.


When Netanyahu speaks of peace with Lebanon and Syria, and Indonesia reaches out to Israel, the agreement creates conditions for regional peace accords. This is Trump's mechanism to use Gaza as a pivot for new trade routes and global alliances.


Why will Trump succeed where others failed? The bluffs have been called. Hamas and its Qatari backers hoped the world would halt Israel or the government would fall. Israeli determination combined with full U.S. backing created entirely different conditions.


Hamas faces two options: total annihilation within weeks, or partial survival by leaving Gaza. As Trump declared, "Either you accept the agreement, or we give Israel the full green light to go all the way". Israeli victory is assured regardless.


The agreement allows Israel to achieve victory in Gaza and establish new global alliances. But a third mission remains secondary, strategic resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through sovereignty over Judea and Samaria.


While Israel did not secure official sovereignty immediately, it achieved practical freedom of action. The American decision on E1 construction connecting Jerusalem to Ma'ale Adumim dissolves the idea of a contiguous Palestinian state. Israel has secured protection from American pressure regarding Palestinian statehood.


Having virtually defeated the Iranian "ring of fire" surrounding Israel, this campaign shifts from full-scale war to low-intensity operations. The time has come to pivot to the internal struggle for the Negev, Galilee, and Judea and Samaria, shifting resources from the IDF toward Israel Police, Border Police, and domestic security.


The victory in Gaza is only the dawn of a new era. The real war to shape our internal borders is just beginning.


The author is the Chairman and Founder of IDSF – Israel’s Defense and Security Forum – and a distinguished senior fellow at David Institute for Security Policy.

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